China’s key maritime vulnerability starts at the Strait of Hormuz rather than the Strait of Malacca, creating a fresh arena of strategic competition in the Indian Ocean involving Beijing, India, France and the United States, according to a new report released ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore.The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its report titled Asia Pacific Regional Security Assessment that the Indian Ocean Region is re-emerging as a crucial strategic theatre after decades of relative calm following the Cold War.The report argued that China’s dependence on energy imports moving through the Indian Ocean has made the region central to Beijing’s security calculations, while also exposing vulnerabilities that rival powers could exploit during any future conflict.
Focus shifts from Malacca to Hormuz
The study examined strategic competition around major maritime choke points linking the Middle East and Asia, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.According to the report, the commonly discussed “Malacca Dilemma”, referring to China’s dependence on the Malacca Strait for trade and energy flows, overlooks a more significant vulnerability farther west.The report said a substantial share of China’s imported energy first passes through the Strait of Hormuz before crossing the Indian Ocean and heading towards East Asia.The study noted that any disruption along these routes would impact not only China but also major Asian economies such as Japan, which heavily depends on energy imports transported through the Indian Ocean.The report also cited recent geopolitical developments around Hormuz, including Iran’s participation in the Maritime Security Belt 2026 naval exercise with China and Russia earlier this year.The drills took place shortly before conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel disrupted shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the report noted.
India, France and US remain dominant players
The report said China faces greater strategic difficulties in the Indian Ocean than in waters closer to its mainland because established regional powers such as India, France and the US maintain strong military capabilities and partnerships across the region.While the People’s Liberation Army Navy has expanded significantly over the past two decades, Beijing’s operational reach near Hormuz remains comparatively limited, according to the study.To address these vulnerabilities, China has steadily expanded military exercises, defence cooperation, arms exports and political partnerships with Indian Ocean littoral states.However, the report said Beijing is unlikely in the near future to stop India, France or the US from operating through key Indian Ocean choke points.Instead, China is gradually building operational experience and military partnerships aimed at protecting its maritime interests and reducing dependence on vulnerable sea routes.
Growing competition in the Indian Ocean
The report highlighted that India views the broader Indian Ocean as a primary strategic responsibility and has increased naval exercises, defence cooperation and regional security partnerships in recent years.It added that France remains a major force in the western Indian Ocean through military deployments in Africa and on Reunion Island.Meanwhile, the United States continues to maintain a long-standing military presence centred around the Diego Garcia base while deepening engagement with several Indian Ocean nations.According to the report, the combined military presence and partnerships of India, France and the US provide them with significant capabilities for surveillance, power projection and maritime security coordination across critical choke points.At the same time, the study noted that differences in threat perceptions and strategic priorities among the three countries could limit deeper coordination.
China likely to deepen regional military presence
The report said China’s expanding infrastructure investments, energy dependencies, defence market and political ties are likely to ensure a stronger Chinese role in the Indian Ocean in the coming years.The study added that Beijing is expected to deepen its military presence across the region as its economic and security interests continue to grow.Aircraft carriers are also expected to play an increasingly important role in securing sea lanes stretching from the Strait of Hormuz to East Asia.However, the study noted that it remains uncertain whether China can eventually sustain a military presence in the Indian Ocean comparable to that of India, France and the US.
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