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Gold price prediction today: Gold and silver prices are likely to be range bound this week, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold prices witnessed a pause in their recent upward momentum, with international spot prices declining around 2.5% last week to around $4,712 per ounce, while domestic MCX gold prices fell around 1.24% to Rs 1,52,699 / 10 gms. This has brought gold’s year-to-date gains down to 9%, indicating some cooling after the strong rally seen earlier this year.One of the key factors weighing on gold has been the rise in crude oil prices due to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, which has revived global inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher. At the same time, record-high US equity markets have reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. This shift in sentiment is visible in investor positioning as well, with US investors trimming their gold ETF holdings and reducing net long positions in futures.Gold: Focus for this WeekLooking ahead, gold and silver entered the week on a slightly bearish tone, with direction likely to be driven more by overall risk sentiment than traditional safe-haven demand. A notable trend has been the positive correlation with US equities. Strong earnings from major companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon could support precious metals if market volatility remains low. On the other hand, any disappointment in earnings, a spike in bond yields, or further rise in crude oil prices could put pressure on gold.On the macro front, major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week. As a result, market focus will shift to forward guidance, particularly commentary around inflation risks stemming from geopolitical tensions such as the US-Iran situation. Additionally, key data points including US Q1 GDP and the March PCE inflation data will be closely watched for further cues on interest rate outlook and economic health.Another important event this week is the release of the Q1 Gold Demand Trends report by the World Gold Council, which will provide insights into global demand and supply dynamics.Technical Levels & Near-Term OutlookGold (Spot) CMP: $4,560
- Support: $4,400/ $4,300
- Resistance: $4750 /$4,850
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 148,825
- Support: Rs 1,43,000/ Rs 1,40,000
- Resistance: Rs 1,54,500/ Rs,1,58,000
Overall, gold is expected to trade in a range with a slight downside bias in the early part of the week, potentially testing the $4,400 level, which corresponds to around Rs 1,43,000 on MCX. Volatility is likely to increase as markets react to central bank commentary and key US economic data. Any signs of weaker growth, particularly from GDP data, could provide support to gold prices later in the week, while upside is likely to remain capped near $4,750 in Spot and Rs 1,54,500 levels on the MCX. It is to be noted that the broader long-term trend for gold remains positive, and the current phase is being seen as a healthy consolidation rather than a reversal.As far as Silver is concerned international Spot Silver is currently trading around $73 levels and may find initial support around $71 level and a strong support near $68 this week. Resistance for Silver is around $76/$80. On the MCX Silver is trading around Rs 2,36,500 and may find support at Rs 2,29,500/ Rs 2,22,000 while resistance is seen at Rs 2,45,000/2,58,000.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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